Tropics Heating Up
Tropical Weather Outlook
1. A vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system
is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers more than 300
miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week over the
eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast
to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
Invest 99L looking like the stronger of the two. Definitely a swell maker for the east coast in the coming weeks. GFS models taking it up the east coast, but still too far out to know if it will make landfall.
2. A strong tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, along
with tropical-storm-force wind gusts in squalls. Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for
development by Sunday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and by
early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance
moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system
could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba,
Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
90L not looking very organized at the moment. Tracks have it headed into eastern Nicaragua, but the European models have it headed more north into the Yucatan Peninsula and crossing into the Gulf making landfall again in Mexico. If it does make it to the Gulf we could see a small ground swell.